Virginia's Demographic Profile:  Population Trends in the Commonwealth

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Executive Summary:  Looking Forward

Who lives in Virginia? graphic showing state shape. See text for explanation.

Virginia's population is growing and changing. It reached 7.77 million in 2008, maintaining the Commonwealth's position as the 12th largest state in the country with an annual growth rate of about 1.12 percent since 2000. According to the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, three critical trends will shape Virginia's population over the next few decades: selective decentralization, an aging population, and increasing racial and ethnic diversity.

Selective decentralization will increase. People are moving away from the state's central cities and counties to the surrounding suburbs and exurbs. As a result, the number of metropolitan areas is expected to increase, and the boundaries of existing metro areas are expected to expand. Rural counties adjacent to metro areas are likely to experience significant population growth as space and affordable housing become harder to obtain in the urban core areas. Counties with significant quality-of-life advantages, those with access to urban amenities (either their own or nearby), and those with a diversified, service-based economy are particularly prone to rapid growth.

The population will continue to age. The average age of the population will increase as the baby boom generation enters retirement age. By 2030, nearly one in every five Virginians is projected to be 65 years or older. This population will be predominantly female, as women have a longer life expectancy than men. As the baby boomers age, the percentage of older workers will increase as will the average age of the labor force.

Racial and ethnic diversity will increase. Rising immigration and births to immigrant parents and racially mixed couples will increase our racial and ethnic diversity. While non-Hispanic Whites will continue to be the majority of Virginia's population in the next few decades, the proportion of Asians and Hispanics will grow.

 

Download the complete profile (pdf, 876 k)