High School Dropout
The high school dropout rate not only indicates the success of our school system; it forecasts possible problems to come. Virginia's dropout rate has declined in recent years. Due to the efforts of schools as well as outreach and GED attainment programs, the Commonwealth's rate is well below the national average.
Why is This Important?
The high school dropout rate is one measure of the success of our elementary and secondary educational systems. Moreover, because high school dropouts are at higher risk of unemployment and other social ills, dropout rates are a leading indicator of potential future problems. For example, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in February 2009 the national unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma was 4.3 percentage points higher than those who had graduated from high school.
How is Virginia Doing?
Based on the National Center for Education Statistics data, Virginia's high school dropout rates have decreased in recent years, falling from 3.9 percent in 2000 to 2.7 percent in 2006. During the 2005-06 school year, Virginia had the 8th lowest dropout rate in the country. Virginia's rate was also lower than the national rate of 3.9 percent and the rates of its peer states. Tennessee's dropout rate in 2005-06 was 2.8 percent and Maryland's rate was 3.9 percent. New Jersey exhibited the lowest dropout rate in 2006 at 1.7 percent.
The
Virginia Department of
Education recently went
to a longitudinal method
for tracking high school
students, with results
first available for the
2007-2008 school year;
the new methodology also
affected how the dropout
rate is calculated (see
Note below). For
the 2007-08 school year,
the high school dropout
rate was determined by
dividing the number of
dropouts over a four
year period for the cohort
of students that entered
ninth grade four years
earlier. The regions
with dropout rates below
the statewide average
of 8.7 percent were the
Northern (6.6%) and Valley
(8.3%) regions.
Those showing dropout
rates above the statewide
average were the Eastern
(11.8%), Southside (10.9%),
Central (10.5%), Hampton
Roads (9.3%),s West Central
(9.2%), and Southwest
(8.8%) regions.
What Influences High School Dropout Rates?
One of the most significant factors influencing high school dropout rates is family income. According to the U.S. Department of Education, students from low-income families are six times more likely to drop out of high school than students from high-income families.
What is the State's Role?
Many of the most significant factors affecting dropout rates, like family income, are beyond the reach of the school system. State programs aimed at dealing with dropout issues generally take one of two forms:
- Preventive programs like Project Graduation that are designed to keep young people in school by identifying and helping students at risk of dropping out.
- Programs like Race to GED and the Virginia Community College System's Middle College, which "recover" dropouts by helping them get a GED.
Data Definitions and Sources
State-level Data
The National Center for Educational Statistics
provides state ranking rates derived from
the public school high school population
only (grades 9-12). The state ranking for DC,
NC, SC, and VT are missing. (updated
annually in January)
nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2008353rev
Data is for Event Dropouts, which is the percentage
of public school students in grades 9-12 who
dropped out of school in a given year.
Civic Enterprises, "The Silent Epidemic, Perspectives of High School Dropouts," March 2006 (pdf).
Regional-level Data
Virginia Department of Education, Virginia Cohort
Reports: www.doe.virginia.gov/VDOE/src/ontime_grad_rate.shtml
(updated
annually in November)
A dropout is an individual who:
-- was enrolled
in school at some time during the previous
school year and was not enrolled on October
1 of the current school year; OR
-- was not enrolled on October
1 of the previous school year although
expected to be and
- has not graduated from high school or completed a state- or district-approved educational program; and
- does not meet any of
the following exclusionary conditions:
- Transfer to another public school district, private school, or state- or district-approved education program;
- Temporary school-recognized absence due to suspension or illness;
- Death
See the Virginia Department of Education website for further data definitions.
Note: Dropout and graduation rates are cohort rates (See High School Graduation, Data Definitions, for an explanation of cohort, event and status.). They look at what happens to a cohort of students -- those who started ninth grade together. The dropout rate is not simply one hundred minus the graduation rate. In addition to graduates and dropouts, a student cohort includes students who are still enrolled, students who completed high school with a GED or other state-recognized credential, and students on long-term medical leave.
See the Data Sources and Updates Calendar for a detailed list of the data resources used for indicator measures on Virginia Performs.
